Paravigil · Automatic analysis
Eight analyses recomputed every half hour from the data on this site. Each states its method in one line; nothing is learned or hidden.
Computed Sep 27, 2026, 11:22 PM
Unusual today
Each country's signals today against the same signal over its own last 30 days. Listed when at least two standard deviations above its average (z ≥ 2) and above a minimum, so one event against zero is not news.
The watch has 2 days of history; anomalies need at least six. They appear here automatically.
Source: ARMSMA situation watch
Harm to civilians
Share of deaths in organised violence that were civilians, last 90 days of data, countries with at least 25 deaths. "One-sided" is violence by an armed group or government against civilians.
| Country | Deaths | Civilians | One-sided |
|---|---|---|---|
| Myanmar | 137 | 91% | 6% |
| Democratic Republic of the Congo | 199 | 82% | 63% |
| Syria | 65 | 74% | 58% |
| Sudan | 272 | 61% | 11% |
| Cameroon | 33 | 55% | 52% |
| Ethiopia | 366 | 38% | 32% |
| Niger | 42 | 36% | 36% |
| Mozambique | 25 | 32% | 32% |
| Burkina Faso | 171 | 32% | 30% |
| Lebanon | 25 | 28% | 0% |
| Mali | 96 | 19% | 4% |
| Nigeria | 1,022 | 17% | 15% |
| Israel | 102 | 17% | 1% |
| South Africa | 44 | 16% | 23% |
| Colombia | 265 | 13% | 11% |
Source: UCDP GED Candidate, Uppsala University (CC BY 4.0), data up to 2026-08-31
Lethality
Deaths per recorded incident, last 90 days, countries with at least 10 incidents. High values point to heavy weapons, massacres or large battles rather than many small clashes.
| Country | Incidents | Deaths | Per incident |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine | 297 | 5,648 | 19.0 |
| Yemen | 120 | 1,434 | 11.9 |
| Nigeria | 164 | 1,022 | 6.2 |
| Sudan | 47 | 272 | 5.8 |
| Ethiopia | 76 | 366 | 4.8 |
| Democratic Republic of the Congo | 48 | 199 | 4.1 |
| Somalia | 37 | 147 | 4.0 |
| Niger | 11 | 42 | 3.8 |
| Burkina Faso | 47 | 171 | 3.6 |
| Pakistan | 152 | 551 | 3.6 |
| Myanmar | 48 | 137 | 2.9 |
| South Africa | 16 | 44 | 2.7 |
| Russia | 20 | 54 | 2.7 |
| Lebanon | 10 | 25 | 2.5 |
| Cameroon | 15 | 33 | 2.2 |
Source: UCDP GED Candidate, Uppsala University (CC BY 4.0), data up to 2026-08-31
Concentration
How much of the world's recorded toll falls on the few worst-affected countries, last 90 days of data.
11,297 deaths in 49 countries. The worst-affected country accounts for 50%, the top three for 72%, the top five for 80%.
- 1. Ukraine50%
- 2. Yemen13%
- 3. Nigeria9%
- 4. Pakistan5%
- 5. Ethiopia3%
- 6. Sudan2%
- 7. Colombia2%
- 8. Mexico2%
- 9. Democratic Republic of the Congo2%
- 10. Burkina Faso2%
Source: UCDP GED Candidate, Uppsala University (CC BY 4.0), data up to 2026-08-31
Escalation
Deaths in the last 14 days of data against the 14 before, countries with at least 20 in either period. ▲ rising, ▼ falling.
| Country | 14 d before | Last 14 d | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Haiti | 0 | 47 | ▲ +4700% |
| Niger | 3 | 39 | ▲ +1200% |
| Israel | 8 | 65 | ▲ +705% |
| Ethiopia | 65 | 209 | ▲ +224% |
| Democratic Republic of the Congo | 56 | 105 | ▲ +86% |
| Mexico | 91 | 105 | ▲ +15% |
| Syria | 26 | 29 | ▲ +12% |
| Colombia | 112 | 120 | ▲ +7% |
| Mali | 74 | 14 | ▼ -81% |
| Afghanistan | 44 | 12 | ▼ -73% |
| Burkina Faso | 120 | 49 | ▼ -59% |
| Somalia | 95 | 40 | ▼ -58% |
| Nigeria | 628 | 348 | ▼ -45% |
| Sudan | 141 | 82 | ▼ -42% |
Source: UCDP GED Candidate, Uppsala University (CC BY 4.0), data up to 2026-08-31
Crises that come together
How many countries have two kinds of crisis at once, from today's signals. The diagonal is the number of countries with that kind at all.
| Violence | Hazards | Outbreaks | Hunger | Displacement | Outages | Travel advice | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Violence | 49 | 14 | 1 | 24 | 22 | 7 | 31 |
| Hazards | 14 | 27 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| Outbreaks | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Hunger | 24 | 6 | 1 | 30 | 18 | 7 | 21 |
| Displacement | 22 | 5 | 1 | 18 | 26 | 5 | 21 |
| Outages | 7 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 8 |
| Travel advice | 31 | 6 | 1 | 21 | 21 | 8 | 51 |
Source: ARMSMA situation watch
Hazard hotspots
Countries with the most natural-hazard events in the last 30 days, by type.
- Tropical cyclone
- Earthquake
- Flood
- Volcano
- Wildfire
GDACS · USGS · NASA EONET
How current the data is
The newest record from each source. A source that stops updating is shown here first, before it can mislead a chart.
| Source | Latest record | What it feeds |
|---|---|---|
| UCDP GED Candidate | Aug 31, 2026 | Violence: deaths, incidents, conflicts (published with a lag of weeks) |
| GDACS · USGS · NASA EONET | Sep 27, 2026, 11:19 PM | Earthquakes, floods, cyclones, fires, volcanoes |
| WMO Severe Weather | Sep 27, 2026, 11:22 PM | Severe-weather warnings |
| USGS PAGER | Sep 27, 2026, 11:22 PM | Expected earthquake impact |
| Copernicus EMS | Sep 15, 2026, 4:58 PM | Satellite mapping of disasters |
| WHO Disease Outbreak News | Sep 27, 2026, 11:22 PM | Disease outbreak notices |
| IODA | Sep 27, 2026, 11:22 PM | Internet outages |
| UK FCDO | Sep 27, 2026, 11:22 PM | Travel advice levels |
| World Bank population | 2025 | Population, for rates per million |
| ARMSMA situation watch | Sep 27, 2026 | Levels, scores and signals |
| ARMSMA weekly brief | Sep 27, 2026, 9:49 PM | The weekly brief |
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