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Back to ARMSMALive · reading of Sep 29

Mexico

ElevatedScore 4Compound crisesOpen the map

Level, last 60 days

  • Deaths 30 d

    207

    UCDP up to 2026-08-31

  • Per million 90 d

    1.6

    last 90 days

  • Civilians

    11%

    last 90 days

  • Incidents 30 d

    173

  • Population

    131.9 M

    World Bank

  • Plants near violence

    1 / 13

    near violence / total; 1 nuclear

Why this level4

  • +18 deaths in organised violence in the last 30 daysUCDP GED Candidate
  • +119 critical internet-connectivity alerts in 24 hoursIODA, Georgia Tech
  • +11 extreme weather warning in force from the national weather serviceWMO Severe Weather Information Centre
  • +1Compound crisis: organised violence, internet outages, natural hazards at the same timeARMSMA situation watch

Source: ARMSMA situation watch

Every monitored signal

The last 60 days, each on its own scale.

  • Violence deaths, 30 days

    8

  • Travel advice level (FCDO)

    1

  • Violence incidents, 30 days

    12

  • Natural hazards, 7 days

    1

  • Refugees who fled

    278 117

  • Power plants near violence

    1

  • Extreme weather warnings in force

    1

  • Internet outage alerts, 24 h

    19

  • Severe weather warnings in force

    3

Source: ARMSMA situation watch

Deaths in organised violence, per week

Mexico, UCDP best estimates. The red bar is the latest week.

The latest week may be incomplete.

Source: UCDP GED Candidate, Uppsala University (CC BY 4.0), data up to 2026-08-31

Who the violence is between

Deaths by kind of violence, last 90 days of data.

  • State-based conflict · 2%
  • Non-state conflict · 91%
  • Against civilians · 7%

Source: UCDP GED Candidate (CC BY 4.0)

Food, displacement, sanctions

People in food crisis (IPC 3+)
—
2026-08
Share in food crisis
—
2026-08
Undernourishment
2.7%
2023
Refugees who fled
278,117
2025
Refugees hosted
325,534
2025
Internally displaced
262,411
2025
Sanctions designations
1,251
2026-09-29
GDP per person
$13,889
2025

FEWS NET · World Bank / FAO · UNHCR · OpenSanctions

People in crisis-level food insecurity

FEWS NET does not cover this country.

Latest incidents of organised violence25

DatePlaceSidesDeathsCiviliansReported by
2026-08-31Celaya, in the community of El Sauz de VillaseñorJalisco Cartel New Generation — Santa Rosa de Lima Cartel00El Sol del Bajío
2026-08-31at an intersection on Mariano J. García Avenue in the southern part of Irapuato.Jalisco Cartel New Generation — Santa Rosa de Lima Cartel00El Sol de Irapuato
2026-08-31Kitty establishmentSinaloa Cartel — Civilians11El Sol de Sinaloa
2026-08-31Emiliano Zapata neighborhoodUnidentified armed group (Mexico) — Unidentified armed group (Mexico)10El Sol de Acapulco
2026-08-31Minatitlán AvenueUnidentified armed group (Mexico) — Unidentified armed group (Mexico)10El Heraldo de Juarez
2026-08-30 – 2026-09-01Villa UniónJalisco Cartel New Generation, Sinaloa Cartel - Los Chapitos — Sinaloa Cartel - Los Mayos10Vivo En Marte on X
2026-08-30Los Alamitos neighborhoodJalisco Cartel New Generation, Sinaloa Cartel - Los Chapitos — Sinaloa Cartel - Los Mayos10El Sol de Sinaloa
2026-08-30in the Las Heras neighborhoodJalisco Cartel New Generation — Santa Rosa de Lima Cartel00El Sol de Irapuato
2026-08-30on Jalisco Street in the Infonavit neighborhoodJalisco Cartel New Generation — Santa Rosa de Lima Cartel00El Sol de Irapuato
2026-08-30community of Tlalayo, AxochiapanUnidentified armed group (Mexico) — Unidentified armed group (Mexico)10El Universal
2026-08-30Tres de Mayo neighborhood in Emiliano ZapataUnidentified armed group (Mexico) — Unidentified armed group (Mexico)10El Universal
2026-08-30Antonio Barona neighborhood of CuernavacaUnidentified armed group (Mexico) — Unidentified armed group (Mexico)10El Universal
2026-08-29 – 2026-08-31—Jalisco Cartel New Generation, Sinaloa Cartel - Los Chapitos — Sinaloa Cartel - Los Mayos10Cartel Insider
2026-08-29División del Norte neighborhoodUnidentified armed group (Mexico) — Unidentified armed group (Mexico)10El Heraldo de Juarez
2026-08-29Pavo Real and Faisán streetsUnidentified armed group (Mexico) — Unidentified armed group (Mexico)10El Heraldo de Juarez
2026-08-29intersection of Xochimilcas and Cholultecas streetsUnidentified armed group (Mexico) — Unidentified armed group (Mexico)20El Heraldo de Juarez
2026-08-29Rene Gonzalez Justo Boulevard in the municipality of MarqueliaUnidentified armed group (Mexico) — Unidentified armed group (Mexico)10El Sol de Acapulco
2026-08-29AxochiapanUnidentified armed group (Mexico) — Unidentified armed group (Mexico)10El Universal
2026-08-29JiutepecUnidentified armed group (Mexico) — Unidentified armed group (Mexico)20El Universal
2026-08-28Proyecto Alfa neighborhood of Culiacán.Jalisco Cartel New Generation, Sinaloa Cartel - Los Chapitos — Sinaloa Cartel - Los Mayos10El Sol de Sinaloa
2026-08-28Acámbaro, on Melchor Ocampo StreetJalisco Cartel New Generation — Santa Rosa de Lima Cartel00El Sol del Bajío
2026-08-28Tetillas neighborhood, in the municipality of YautepecUnidentified armed group (Mexico) — Unidentified armed group (Mexico)20El Universal
2026-08-27Lázaro Cárdenas neighborhood , south of Culiacán.Jalisco Cartel New Generation, Sinaloa Cartel - Los Chapitos — Sinaloa Cartel - Los Mayos10El Sol de Sinaloa
2026-08-27López Mateos neighborhoodJalisco Cartel New Generation, Sinaloa Cartel - Los Chapitos — Sinaloa Cartel - Los Mayos21El Sol de Sinaloa
2026-08-27Tacámbaro, MichoacánJalisco Cartel New Generation — Los Caballeros Templarios10Milenio

Source: UCDP GED Candidate, Uppsala University (CC BY 4.0), data up to 2026-08-31

Conflicts, 90 days7

  • Unidentified armed groups (Mexico)102
  • Jalisco Cartel New Generation, Sinaloa Cartel - Los Chapitos - Sinaloa Cartel - Los Mayos74
  • Jalisco Cartel New Generation - Santa Rosa de Lima Cartel17
  • Unidentified armed group (Mexico) - Civilians11
  • Sinaloa Cartel - Civilians5
  • Unidentified armed group (Mexico)4
  • Jalisco Cartel New Generation - Los Caballeros Templarios4

Source: UCDP GED Candidate (CC BY 4.0)

Natural hazards, 30 days3

  • Tropical cycloneEIGHTEEN-E-26 · Sep 27, 2026
  • Tropical cyclonePOLO-26 · Sep 21, 2026
  • Tropical cycloneMARIE-26 · Sep 1, 2026

GDACS · USGS · NASA EONET

Warnings and notices

UK FCDO: Mexico: Avoid all but essential travel to parts

Mexico: 3 extreme weather warnings

• Aviso de Ciclón Tropical en el Pacífico — Extreme • Aviso de lluvias — Severe ×2

UK FCDO · WMO · WHO · Copernicus EMS

Power plants near danger1

  • Manuel Álvarez Moreno (Manzanillo) · Oil · 1,300 MW

    5 incidents within 50 km in 90 days, nearest 10 km

Distance only: this does not mean a plant was affected.

WRI Global Power Plant Database; UCDP; GDACS · USGS

Next 7 days in Mexico City

Day°CRainGustsWatch
Tue, Sep 2914…271.1 mm35 km/h
Wed, Sep 3013…274.7 mm27 km/h
Thu, Oct 114…2512.3 mm29 km/hthunderstorm
Fri, Oct 215…2118.9 mm19 km/hthunderstorm
Sat, Oct 314…236.8 mm31 km/h
Sun, Oct 413…216.4 mm24 km/h
Mon, Oct 515…226.9 mm30 km/h

Forecast for the capital only; marks: heat ≥38 °C, frost ≤−20 °C, rain ≥50 mm, gusts ≥75 km/h, thunderstorms. Official warnings are above.

Open-Meteo (CC BY 4.0)

Food prices in markets1

ItemPriceUSDYear
Tortilla / KG20 MXN0.99+25%

Median retail price across markets in the latest month reported (2022-06); change against the same month a year before.

WFP · HDX (CC BY-IGO)

Disasters since 200031

072000: 020002001: 02002: 02003: 02004: 02005: 020052006: 02007: 02008: 02009: 02010: 020102011: 02012: 02013: 02014: 02015: 020152016: 02017: 02018: Droughts 12019: Tropical cyclones 12020: Droughts 3, Floods 1, Tropical cyclones 320202021: Tropical cyclones 5, Earthquakes 12022: Tropical cyclones 32023: Tropical cyclones 42024: Tropical cyclones 62025: Tropical cyclones 120252026: Tropical cyclones 1, Droughts 12026

Tropical cyclonesDroughtsEarthquakesFloods

  • Tropical Cyclone POLO-26 · Sep 21, 2026 · Hurricane/Typhoon > 74 mph (maximum wind speed of 287 km/h)
  • Drought in The Bahamas, Belize, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Honduras, Haiti, Mexico, Nicaragua, El Salvador · Apr 21, 2026 · Medium impact for agricultural drought in 677277 km2
  • Tropical Cyclone ERICK-25 · Jun 16, 2025 · Tropical Depression (maximum wind speed of 231 km/h)
  • Tropical Cyclone NADINE-24 · Oct 18, 2024 · Tropical Depression (maximum wind speed of 83 km/h)
  • Tropical Cyclone MILTON-24 · Oct 5, 2024 · Tropical Storm (maximum wind speed of 287 km/h)
  • Tropical Cyclone HELENE-24 · Sep 23, 2024 · Tropical Depression (maximum wind speed of 222 km/h)
  • Tropical Cyclone JOHN-24 · Sep 22, 2024 · Tropical Depression (maximum wind speed of 194 km/h)
  • Tropical Cyclone BERYL-24 · Jun 28, 2024 · Tropical Depression (maximum wind speed of 269 km/h)
  • Tropical Cyclone ALBERTO-24 · Jun 17, 2024 · Tropical Depression (maximum wind speed of 83 km/h)
  • Tropical Cyclone OTIS-23 · Oct 22, 2023 · Tropical Depression (maximum wind speed of 259 km/h)
  • Tropical Cyclone NORMA-23 · Oct 17, 2023 · Tropical Depression (maximum wind speed of 213 km/h)
  • Tropical Cyclone LIDIA-23 · Oct 3, 2023 · Tropical Depression (maximum wind speed of 204 km/h)
  • Tropical Cyclone HILARY-23 · Aug 16, 2023 · Tropical Depression (maximum wind speed of 231 km/h)
  • Tropical Cyclone ROSLYN-22 · Oct 20, 2022 · Tropical Depression (maximum wind speed of 213 km/h)
  • Tropical Cyclone ORLENE-22 · Sep 29, 2022 · Tropical Depression (maximum wind speed of 213 km/h)
  • Tropical Cyclone AGATHA-22 · May 28, 2022 · Tropical Depression (maximum wind speed of 176 km/h)

GDACS (orange and red alerts since 2000)

Next elections1

  • June 6, 2027 — Chamber of Deputies

Wikipedia — national electoral calendar (CC BY-SA)