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Back to ARMSMALive · reading of Sep 29

Paravigil

What changed this week, assembled automatically from the situation watch and the feeds. Every line links to its source.

Week Sep 28 – Oct 4 · week in progress

6 countries moved up a level and 9 moved down. 21 countries are elevated or worse, against 21 before the week. No earthquake with a PAGER impact alert, no GDACS red alert, no Copernicus mapping activation.

Moved up6

  • Russia Elevated → High

    UK FCDO advises against all travel to the whole country · 7 deaths in organised violence in the last 30 days · 10 critical internet-connectivity alerts in 24 hours

  • Mexico Normal → Elevated

    8 deaths in organised violence in the last 30 days · 19 critical internet-connectivity alerts in 24 hours · 1 extreme weather warning in force from the national weather service

  • Iraq Watch → Elevated

    UK FCDO advises against all travel to parts of the country · 20 critical internet-connectivity alerts in 24 hours

  • Brazil Normal → Watch

    8 natural-hazard events in the last 7 days · 2 deaths in organised violence in the last 30 days

  • Zimbabwe Normal → Watch

    26 critical internet-connectivity alerts in 24 hours · 1.3 million people in crisis-level food insecurity or worse (IPC 3+)

  • Spain Normal → Watch

    2 extreme weather warnings in force from the national weather service · 1 Copernicus satellite-mapping activation for a disaster in the last 30 days

Moved down9

  • Nigeria Severe → High
  • Yemen Severe → High
  • South Sudan Severe → High
  • Burkina Faso High → Elevated
  • Iran High → Elevated
  • Niger High → Elevated
  • Uganda Elevated → Normal
  • Cameroon Elevated → Watch
  • Nepal Watch → Normal

Where violence was worst

UCDP publishes with a lag: its last 30 days of data (up to 2026-08-31) against the 30 before. The current UCDP release does not reach back to the 30 days before, so there is no comparison (—).

CountryLast 30 days30 days before
Ukraine5,467—
Yemen1,400—
Nigeria1,006—
Pakistan547—
Ethiopia283—
Sudan270—
Colombia246—
Mexico207—

Disasters0

Nothing this week.

Extreme weather warnings in force8

  • Kazakhstan 57 extreme of 77
  • Colombia 7 extreme of 16
  • Saudi Arabia 7 extreme of 29
  • People's Republic of China 4 extreme of 26
  • Ecuador 2 extreme of 6
  • Spain 2 extreme of 36
  • Mexico 1 extreme of 3
  • Russia 1 extreme of 28

Disease outbreak notices0

Nothing this week.

Compound crises16

  • Nigeria — Compound crisis: organised violence, official travel advice, food insecurity at the same time
  • Ukraine — Compound crisis: organised violence, official travel advice, food insecurity, mass displacement at the same time
  • Mexico — Compound crisis: organised violence, internet outages, natural hazards at the same time
  • Afghanistan — Compound crisis: organised violence, official travel advice, food insecurity, mass displacement at the same time
  • Colombia — Compound crisis: organised violence, natural hazards, food insecurity at the same time
  • Democratic Republic of the Congo — Compound crisis: organised violence, official travel advice, disease outbreaks, internet outages, food insecurity, mass displacement at the same time
  • Mali — Compound crisis: organised violence, official travel advice, food insecurity at the same time
  • Pakistan — Compound crisis: organised violence, official travel advice, food insecurity at the same time
  • Russia — Compound crisis: organised violence, official travel advice, internet outages, natural hazards at the same time
  • Somalia — Compound crisis: organised violence, official travel advice, food insecurity, mass displacement at the same time
  • Sudan — Compound crisis: organised violence, official travel advice, food insecurity, mass displacement at the same time
  • Syria — Compound crisis: organised violence, official travel advice, food insecurity, mass displacement at the same time
  • Venezuela — Compound crisis: organised violence, official travel advice, internet outages, food insecurity, mass displacement at the same time
  • Yemen — Compound crisis: organised violence, official travel advice, food insecurity at the same time
  • Ethiopia — Compound crisis: official travel advice, internet outages, food insecurity at the same time
  • South Sudan — Compound crisis: official travel advice, food insecurity, mass displacement at the same time

Built by the situation watch every few hours during the week; a finished week keeps its last version. Nothing here is written by hand or generated by a language model — it is the data, arranged.