Paravigil
Open-source situational awareness: conflict, disasters, health and infrastructure, read automatically from public sources and compared with each country's own recent past.
Reading of 2026-09-28
Countries elevated or worse
21
Deaths in organised violence, 30 days
10 854
UCDP data up to 2026-08-31
Natural-hazard events, 7 days
147
-150 (-51%)vs 297 before
Countries under severe-weather warning
16
5 with extreme warnings
Satellite-mapping activations, 30 days
5
-14 (-74%)vs 19 before
Power plants near violence
26
3 of them nuclear
Countries by situation level
Every country above normal on the latest reading.
- Watch · 33
- Elevated · 6
- High · 7
- Severe · 8
Source: ARMSMA situation watch, reading of 2026-09-28
Movers this week
Change in situation score against the reading seven days earlier. Right: worse. Left: better.
- Worse
- Better
Not enough history yet: movers appear once the watch has run for a week.
Source: ARMSMA situation watch
Deaths in organised violence per million people
Last 90 days of UCDP data, divided by population. A rate shows how heavily violence weighs on a country, which a raw count hides.
Sources: UCDP GED Candidate (CC BY 4.0), data up to 2026-08-31; World Bank population 2025 (CC BY 4.0). Countries under 500 000 people left out.
Compound crises
Countries where three or more kinds of crisis coincide — violence, natural hazards, disease, outages or official warnings. Coinciding crises are harder to answer than any one alone.
- Severe
Nigeria
Compound crisis: organised violence, official travel advice, internet outages, food insecurity at the same time
- Severe
Ukraine
Compound crisis: organised violence, official travel advice, internet outages, food insecurity, mass displacement at the same time
- Severe
Afghanistan
Compound crisis: organised violence, official travel advice, internet outages, food insecurity, mass displacement at the same time
- Severe
Democratic Republic of the Congo
Compound crisis: organised violence, official travel advice, disease outbreaks, food insecurity, mass displacement at the same time
- Severe
Pakistan
Compound crisis: organised violence, official travel advice, food insecurity at the same time
- Severe
Syria
Compound crisis: organised violence, official travel advice, food insecurity, mass displacement at the same time
- Severe
Yemen
Compound crisis: organised violence, official travel advice, food insecurity at the same time
- Severe
South Sudan
Compound crisis: official travel advice, internet outages, food insecurity, mass displacement at the same time
- High
Ethiopia
Compound crisis: organised violence, official travel advice, food insecurity at the same time
- High
Iran
Compound crisis: organised violence, official travel advice, internet outages at the same time
- High
Mali
Compound crisis: organised violence, official travel advice, food insecurity at the same time
- High
Niger
Compound crisis: organised violence, official travel advice, food insecurity at the same time
- High
Somalia
Compound crisis: organised violence, official travel advice, food insecurity, mass displacement at the same time
- High
Sudan
Compound crisis: organised violence, official travel advice, food insecurity, mass displacement at the same time
- High
Venezuela
Compound crisis: organised violence, official travel advice, internet outages, food insecurity, mass displacement at the same time
- Elevated
Cameroon
Compound crisis: organised violence, official travel advice, food insecurity at the same time
- Elevated
Colombia
Compound crisis: organised violence, natural hazards, food insecurity at the same time
- Elevated
Uganda
Compound crisis: organised violence, internet outages, food insecurity at the same time
Paravigil reads open sources several times a day — UCDP, GDACS, USGS, NASA, WMO, WHO, Copernicus, IODA, UK FCDO, the World Bank and WRI — and compares each country with fixed thresholds and with its own last 30 days. It is not a forecast and not an assessment by any government; it says what the sources report, with the numbers, and every figure links back to its source.